ABSTRACT
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Chronic DiseaseABSTRACT
BackgroundSeveral candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known. MethodsFollowing vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease. ResultsPost-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods. ConclusionsWe advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
The extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the United States population is currently unknown. High quality serology is a key tool to understanding the spread of infection, immunity against the virus, and correlates of protection. Limited validation and testing of serology assays used for serosurveys can lead to unreliable or misleading data, and clinical testing using such unvalidated assays can lead to medically costly diagnostic errors and improperly informed public health decisions. Estimating prevalence and clinical decision making is highly dependent on specificity. Here, we present an optimized ELISA-based serology protocol from antigen production to data analysis. This protocol defines thresholds for IgG and IgM for determination of seropositivity with estimated specificity well above 99%. Validation was performed using both traditionally collected serum and dried blood on mail-in blood sampling kits, using archival (pre-2019) negative controls and known PCR-diagnosed positive patient controls. Minimal cross-reactivity was observed for the spike proteins of MERS, SARS1, OC43 and HKU1 viruses and no cross reactivity was observed with anti-influenza A H1N1 HAI titer during validation. This strategy is highly specific and is designed to provide good estimates of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in a population, providing specific and reliable data from serosurveys and clinical testing which can be used to better evaluate and understand SARS-CoV-2 immunity and correlates of protection.